Major season continues this week at Hazeltine in Minneapolis for the third major championship of the LPGA Tour year at the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship. This kicks off a stretch where three of the next four tournaments on the schedule will be majors. The field is absolutely stacked, so here are some odds to target, and some odds to be skeptical of this week at Hazeltine:
Odds to Target:
Jeeno Thitikul (+1600) – This is a pretty unique week on the schedule because Nelly Korda is such an overwhelming favorite, that it creates some opportunity and value for some of the best in the world. We all know Thitikul has issues in majors, ones that have really come into play this season, but she will break this streak eventually and has a game fairly similar to Hannah Green’s, who won here in 2019. Thitikul is still the no doubt second best player in the world, and having her at these odds is a gift you likely won’t get any other week.
Miyu Yamashita (+1800) – Yamashita is coming off a win at Meijer that I think pretty firmly cements her as the third best player currently on the LPGA Tour, so like with Jeeno, +1800 is a crazy value. Yamashita is the type of player who likely won’t take you out of a bet early, she is so consistent both on a hole-to-hole basis and weekly. She has five top-five finishes already, hits a ton of fairways and greens and is one of the best putters in the world. Her game is a bit reminiscent of the great Inbee Park at times, and it can set up well for majors on the LPGA Tour.
Hannah Green (+2200) – When Hannah Green is playing confident golf, she is a top five player in the world. She should feel a lot of confidence coming back to the place she won her first major in 2019. Green has developed as a player a lot since that time and has seemingly reached her best this season. Don’t worry too much about her momentum slowing down as of late, she’s still a good bet to take this home.
Odds to be Skeptical of:
Haeran Ryu (+2200) – With these numbers, there really aren’t any bad bets this week, just odds that may give some better value. Getting a player at Ryu’s level at +2200 is an absolute steal on paper, but she has been away from the United States for a bit, even missing the U.S. Women’s Open. The last time she played, in Cincinnati, she finished runner-up, but that feels like a long time ago in golf momentum terms. It still isn’t a bad move to take her, but the rust factor worries me a bit.
Lydia Ko (+4,000) – Getting an LPGA Hall of Famer who is ranked in the top 15 in the world at +4,000 certainly isn’t bad, but Ko has struggled as of late. She has one top-10 finish since the start of April and played poorly through much of her two rounds at the U.S. Women’s Open. While she’s doing everything pretty well this year, pulling her strokes gained ranking to No. 11 this year, she isn’t necessarily doing anything at an elite level, which is a bit concerning for one of the greatest short game players to ever step on a golf course.
Jennifer Kupcho (+5,000) – Kupcho has had an under-the-radar good season, and her performance in the first couple rounds at the U.S. Women’s Open showed her return to elite level golf at major championships. Kupcho is just a tough player to trust on a weekly basis, especially against a field of this level. Kupcho has finished in the top 20 in 6/7 starts, but has had a tough time staying in serious contention long enough to get in winning position. At +5,000, it isn’t horrible, but this is a week where players who would normally be favorites to win have favorable odds.
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